Diamonds crash to lowest prices this century as Bitcoin surges past them

Natural diamond values have slid to levels not seen in over two decades, with wholesale prices sitting roughly 30-40% below their 2021 peaks.

Retail prices for a mainstream 1-carat natural round diamond now land between $3,530 and $3,860. It's a structural unraveling driven by three forces hitting simultaneously: oversupply, weakening demand, and a flood of lab-grown stones that are chemically identical but 70-85% cheaper.

Wholesale prices for synthetic stones have collapsed more than 75% from 2022 levels. Since March 2025 alone, lab-grown diamond prices have dropped 29.9%, compared to a 4.0% decline for natural stones of similar quality during the same window.

China accounts for more than 60% of global synthetic diamond output. Chinese exports of lab-grown diamonds surged 65.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

The result is a two-tier squeeze. Lab-grown prices are in freefall, which drags down the perceived value of mid-tier natural diamonds that compete in overlapping consumer segments. Only the largest, highest-quality natural stones have shown resilience.

Debswana, the joint venture between De Beers and Botswana's government, has reported severe sales declines. For a country where diamond mining has historically been a cornerstone of GDP, that's not a line item problem. It's a fiscal crisis in slow motion.