Expert: Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Has Only Just Begun, but There Won’t Be a 10x Surge

• Ki Young Ju expects bitcoin to rise 3–5x within the current cycle.
• In his view, a larger share of institutional investors reduces the amplitude of both the asset’s upside and downside moves.
• The analyst pointed to an inflow of new capital, old whales halting their selling, and futures whales building large long positions.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the current Bitcoin bull cycle is only just beginning. At the same time, he expects less extreme upside for the leading cryptocurrency compared with previous cycles — around 3–5x instead of a parabolic 10x-plus rally.

According to the head of CryptoQuant, in the past, “hot money” and retail investor dominance fueled explosive bitcoin rallies, after which the price could drop by 80%.

Now the situation has changed due to the market’s larger capitalization and the growing share of institutional holders. In Ki Young Ju’s view, these factors both cap the upside and soften potential drawdowns.

He expects the current cycle to deliver a 3–5x rise in bitcoin, after which a milder bear market could begin.

Onchain metrics point to a shift in market structure

Ki Young Ju drew attention to the PnL index, which tracks the aggregate profitability of bitcoin holders. According to him, the indicator shows less extreme cycle peaks and the formation of lows at higher profitability levels.