Grayscale Sees Limited Bitcoin Impact From 25-Basis-Point Hike

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, and Grayscale Research says the move is unlikely to drive major changes in Bitcoin price and the crypto markets. Grayscale’s central question is whether the increase is an isolated adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle.

Grayscale’s argument rests on a policy gap. The firm characterizes the latest increase as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical change in official policy. In its view, the difference is not simply the size of a single rate move, but the scale and duration of the policy path that follows it.

25 basis points hike and Crypto is still green. Grayscale Research views this as a mid-cycle adjustment, not a cyclical shift, and expects little impact on crypto markets. A comparable hike in 1997 had the same result. Worth noting: stablecoin issuers like and ,… — Grayscale (@Grayscale)

contrasts the decision with the Fed’s campaign from March 2022 through July 2023. During that period, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 550 basis points to contain inflation. Grayscale says that sustained tightening probably weighed on Bitcoin and other digital assets during the last bear market.