Quantum computers could neutralise bitcoin? No basis for it within 10 years

Concerns are being raised again that quantum computers could neutralise bitcoin's cryptographic system, but an analysis says it is hard to see it as a realistic threat at current technology levels. It says there is little basis to expect a quantum computer with cryptographically meaningful capabilities within the next 10 years, and it remains uncertain whether such equipment can be developed.

Bitcoin Magazine, a blockchain media outlet, said on Oct. 1 local time that the core of the debate over whether quantum computers can attack bitcoin is whether they can compute a private key from a public key and steal someone else's bitcoin. The outlet said current quantum computers have not reached the computing power needed to break such cryptographic systems.

Quantum computers are being developed using a range of advanced technologies, including superconducting qubits, neutral atoms, optical tweezers, laser cooling and dilution refrigerators. But achieving results in complex experiments or specific calculations is a separate issue from building a stable, large-scale system capable of attacking real-world cryptographic systems.

A key challenge for quantum computers is qubit stability and error rates. Increasing the number of qubits alone is not enough. Systems must reliably operate at scale while reducing errors that occur during computation. Large amounts of capital are flowing into the quantum computing industry, but the size of investment itself does not mean technology has matured to the level needed for code-breaking.