- KB Securities said Samsung Electronics shares have fallen 49% from their peak, signaling that the correction is ending and the stock is entering the start of an uptrend.
- KB Securities said the memory supply shortage will persist for at least three years through 2028, with a chain effect of deferred demand creating conditions supportive of a share-price rise.
- KB Securities said total shareholder returns of 600 trillion won to 700 trillion won and a dividend yield of 7% to 15% are projected over the next three years, providing a powerful catalyst for a valuation rerating and share-price gains.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
KB Securities said on August 12 that Samsung Electronics Co. shares have fallen 49% from their peak, leaving the stock at 4.0 times 12-month forward price-to-earnings, and that the correction appears to be ending as an uptrend begins.
Kim Dong-won, head of research at the brokerage, said one reason is that OpenAI, which is preparing to go public, could raise substantial funds through an initial public offering as early as this year. That would likely ease market concerns over the AI investment cycle and the sustainability of spending, factors that had weighed on sentiment.
He added that much of the excessive margin-driven selling that triggered the stock's sharp decline in June and July has been cleared, suggesting the short-term correction tied to market flows has largely run its course. A large shareholder return plan due to be announced soon could also serve as a powerful catalyst for further gains.
KB Securities said memory supply shortages will persist for at least three years through 2028. Kim said big tech customers' memory demand fulfillment rate stood at only about 60% this month, with shortages worsening rather than easing. Demand that cannot be met this year because it exceeds supply capacity will likely be pushed into next year, while unmet demand next year could be deferred again into 2028, creating a chain effect of delayed orders.
By contrast, he said, completing a new memory production line takes at least three years, making a near-term expansion of supply unrealistic. On that basis, memory shortages are set to continue for at least three years through 2028.
