What does a Fed rate hike mean for bitcoin prices?

00:00 Speaker A

Now, people always are asking what does this all mean for Bitcoin?

00:04 Speaker A

First of all, when rates go up, people generally view it as a risk to risk assets because liquidity tightens, which by the way, the bond market is already doing for them anyways, which is why we talk about fiscal dominance.

00:16 Speaker A

But short-term is bad for risk assets.

00:20 Speaker A

But there is a world where a credible rate hike, credible rate hike, without saying there's going to be a ton of hikes or a new cycle, if there if he gives an indication there might just be one hike

00:32 Speaker A

and it could help manage inflation and inflation's temporary because of diesel and gas prices, that kind of thing.

00:38 Speaker A

That could actually calm the longer-term yields that Bessent is so concerned about, and that could eventually create room for cuts.

00:48 Speaker A

If we get an indication that we're going into a hiking cycle, I would say that all bets uh are are off here.

00:54 Speaker A

Bessent wants one thing, Trump wants one thing, the market wants one thing, they're pricing it in and it can get very, very strange.

01:02 Speaker A

I mean, a hike can be painful now, but it could actually be stabilizing later.

01:07 Speaker A

And a hold on rates could feel bullish uh while making the long-term credibility problem worse.

01:14 Speaker A

I mean, we've seen these things before where the market does what you think it should do based on the decision and then goes back entirely the opposite way after the news hits.