Why the CLARITY Act Matters for XRP
Regulatory clarity has driven XRP more than any other factor, and the CLARITY Act is the most immediate catalyst. After the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14, the XRP price rallied above $1.50 before retracing to around $1.40.
That retreat came from profit-taking in the $1.44 to $1.46 zone. Roughly 1.16 billion XRP had been bought at those prices by investors waiting to sell at breakeven, with about $3 billion in sell orders parked above them.
The CLARITY Act has stalled in the Senate since May, with the chamber entering its August recess without a vote. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion to proceed on August 8, and the procedural vote is scheduled for September 15. Cloture is the step that ends debate and forces the bill onto the floor, so it decides whether the CLARITY Act gets a full vote at all.
That motion needs 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must join the 53 Republicans. Galaxy Research expects at least two Republicans to vote against, which pushes the requirement closer to nine. If cloture passes, XRP could rally toward $1.50 in September and potentially reach $2 after a full Senate vote, although Galaxy Research puts the chances of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 10%.
Other Catalysts That Could Boost XRP’s Performance Above $1
While the CLARITY Act is the catalyst everyone is watching, two others could lift the XRP price back above $1.
Ripple’s Cross-Border Payment Expansion
In 2026, Ripple expanded its cross-border payment network through deals with Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Mastercard.
Ripple also obtained full EU authorization for a MiCA Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) licence and an EU Electronic Money Institution (EMI) licence, which lets it serve institutions across all 30 EEA countries through a single regulated Ripple Payments relationship.
None of those deals moved the XRP price, because they run on Ripple’s payment rails rather than requiring anyone to buy XRP. However, they matter if the CLARITY Act passes, since institutions would then have both the regulatory cover and the infrastructure to use XRP itself, which could push the price toward $2.
XRP ETFs
XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.51 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025, which shows institutional demand held up even as the broader market weakened. However, inflows have collapsed this year. XRP funds have taken in $3.27 million so far in August, with weekly inflows down 93% in the week ending August 8.
If monthly inflows return to May levels of $131.94 million, those funds would take supply off the market and add buying pressure, which would help XRP hold above $1.
What If XRP Fails to Reclaim $1?
XRP has fallen below $1 twice in August, and buyers pushed it back above the level each time. If they fail on the next attempt and market conditions do not improve in September, XRP would be trading below $1 with no catalyst until the cloture vote, which is the same position it held in late 2021.
If XRP loses the $1 support, the coin could trade between $0.80 and $0.95 in the near term. Without a rally above $0.95 in Q4, the XRP price could drop to around $0.70.
However, another three-year stretch below $1 looks unlikely. It would require a prolonged crypto bear market, a reversal in Ripple’s cross-border expansion, and a loss of XRP’s current catalysts, all of which appear unlikely today.
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