[Analysis] Bitcoin Enters Bull Market, On-Chain Indicators Show

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin has moved beyond an early bull market and entered a full bull phase based on on-chain indicators, according to a CryptoQuant analysis. In four of the previous five instances when the same signal appeared, the cryptocurrency went on to post further gains.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Sept. 26 that the ratio between the adjusted MVRV 30-day moving average and the 365-day moving average crossed above its own 365-day moving average on Aug. 20. At that point, the market entered an early bull phase, with Bitcoin trading at $71,255.

MVRV compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which reflects investors' average purchase price. The metric is used to gauge whether market participants are broadly sitting on profits or losses.

That early bull phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose 13%. On Sept. 20, the ratio broke above the 1.0 threshold, meaning the short-term MVRV average moved above the annual average, and Bitcoin entered a full bull market at $80,691.

The ratio now stands at 1.018, while Bitcoin was trading at $84,156. The bullish structure remains intact as long as the ratio stays above 1.0, Adler added.

The argument is also based on the indicator's historical performance. Since 2012, this marks the sixth time Bitcoin has shifted from an early bull phase into a bull market, Adler wrote. In four of the previous five cases, prices finished above the level where the full bull market began.