Bitcoin Fell in Every Past Midterm Year and Rallied the Year After. Which Pattern Wins This Time?

Bitcoin has crashed over 50% in every midterm election year on record, then bounced back hard the year after. But 2026 is breaking the mold in ways that could upend everything investors think they know about this cycle.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has witnessed sharp declines during each of the last three U.S. midterm election years: it dropped 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022, according to Binance Research. However, following each of these downturns, Bitcoin rallied, gaining an average of 54% in the year that followed.

As we approach the elections on November 3, 2026, this historical trend is resurfacing. As of October 5, Bitcoin is priced at $86,189, about 32% below its previous high of $126,080. This raises the question: Will we see the familiar midterm slump, or could a rally be on the horizon this time?

Bitcoin Fell in 2014, 2018 and 2022, Then Rallied the Year After

Binance Research calculated the losses from these past midterm years as full calendar-year declines. Each of these years saw Bitcoin lose more than half of its value, with the steepest decline occurring in 2018, when it almost lost three-quarters of its price.