Bitcoin Hovers Around $77,000: Can the Bull Market Continue?

In the just-concluded August, Bitcoin (BTC) closed the month with a gain of approximately 25%, marking the first positive August record since 2021. This performance is second only to the 65.6% in 2017 and the 30.7% in 2013, ranking as the third-best in history. However, entering September 1, the BTC price has retreated to around $77,000, and the market has entered a brief consolidation phase. Data from Bitwise confirmed the previous strong rebound, but the core question that follows is: as the market steps into September, historically the weakest-performing month, can this rally, driven by macro liquidity, sustain itself? This has become the focal point of investor attention.

From a historical statistical perspective, bulls do face severe challenges in September. Long-term tracking data from CoinGlass shows that September is one of the worst months for Bitcoin performance, with historical average returns ranging between -3% and -4%. In years when August posted significant gains, September often witnessed sharp profit-taking. Statistics from Dow Jones Market Data also indicate that since 2014, Bitcoin’s average decline in September has been approximately 2.2%. However, it is not rigorous to directly equate seasonal patterns with market laws. The current market structure is vastly different from the past; the introduction of spot ETFs, deep institutional participation, and changes in macro liquidity have collectively formed a new pricing logic.