Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced

In brief

• Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day and inside a $68,858–$72,408 band,
• The move extends a Wednesday's 8.7% rip.
• On Myriad, the "pump to $84K or dump to $55K" market sits at a near 50-50 chances after leaning roughly 70% toward the dump days earlier.

Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day, as bulls attempt to break the bearish trend for the first time in months. Sentiment across the market has clearly shifted, but traders on prediction markets don’t appear convinced just yet.

Today’s move extends Bitcoin's sharpest rally in five months, with yesterday’s performance being the strongest one-day jump since March 4 and its highest price since June 1.

Prediction markets turn crowd bets into live odds, and on Myriad, a market run by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders were leaning roughly 70% toward a dump to $55,000 just days ago. By Wednesday afternoon the odds had collapsed to a near coin flip: about 52% on the bullish $84K side, 48% on the bearish $55K.

But the skepticism isn't uniform, and the odds will vary across markets. Polymarket's flagship 2026 price market was pricing a 56% chance BTC touched $55,000 before year-end and just 51% odds of a run to $75,000 as of last week. On Kalshi, traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000—both thresholds the rally blew through on Wednesday. A separate Polymarket contract put BTC above $75,000 for August at 47% on roughly $12 million in volume.