Bitcoin’s Rally Isn’t a Bull Market Until It Breaks This Level

Bitcoin posted its best monthly performance of the year in August, gaining roughly 25% — the largest monthly increase since November 2024. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds mirrored the strength, recording their strongest monthly inflows of the year. According to SoSoValue data cited by CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $3.5 billion in net inflows in August, a dramatic jump from just $172 million in July.

Despite the impressive numbers, technical analysis suggests Bitcoin still needs to clear one critical hurdle before a new bull market can be confirmed: breaking and holding above the May high.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $77,250, having briefly fallen below $60,000 in early July. The recent rebound was driven primarily by a short squeeze and the U.S. Treasury’s plan to expand bond repurchases. However, traders note that while Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average in August and sentiment quickly shifted from fear to extreme greed, the higher-time-frame trend remains bearish. The May high now serves as the dividing line between bullish and bearish scenarios, and Bitcoin has yet to break above that level. The market remains confined within a seven-month range.