Bitcoin’s Security Faces a 76% Risk by 2046, AI Model Predicts

“You are a mathematician, quantum computing expert, and onchain analyst writing a short theory.

Estimate the probability that Bitcoin’s current signature schemes (ECDSA and Schnorr over secp256k1) will be practically broken, meaning an attacker could derive private keys from exposed public keys at scale, either via cryptographically relevant quantum computers or via classical/AI advances in cryptanalysis.

Provide estimates for each of these horizons:

• Next 2 years
• Next 5 years
• Next 10 years
• Next 20 years

For each horizon, break the answer into:

Quantum: X%
Classical/AI: Y%
→ Z% total risk

Keep the response concise. Use short lines and approximate percentages only. Be direct. Do not hedge, explain reasoning, or add caveats. Base the numbers on current expert consensus (most developers and cryptographers place practical quantum risk well beyond 2030) and the lack of known practical classical breaks against secp256k1, not on speculative worst-case scenarios.

Output only the post text.”

AI Predictions for Bitcoin’s Cryptographic Security

The following table compares the models’ estimates of the cumulative probability that Bitcoin’s ECDSA and Schnorr signatures could be practically broken within each time horizon. The figures represent each model’s combined assessment of quantum computing and classical or AI-assisted cryptanalysis risks.