Bitcoin traders bet on a tight range as $65,000 stays in reach but breakouts fade

Bitcoin speculators are positioning for a cramped, choppy August, with prediction market Polymarket pricing a strong chance of a move to $65,000 but almost no prospect of a fresh record.

The "What price will Bitcoin hit in August?" market gives the cryptocurrency roughly a 59% chance of touching $65,000 at some point during the month.

Traders put the odds of a run to $67,500 at 25%, falling to just 10% for $70,000 and 2% for $75,000.

The market had drawn more than $24 million in trading volume, making it one of the busier crypto contracts on the platform.

Bitcoin was changing hands near $62,900 as the odds were captured, and traded around $63,050 on 14 August, down about 1.3% on the day.

That leaves it roughly 50% below the all-time high of about $126,000 reached last October.

On the downside, Polymarket assigned a 91% probability to Bitcoin slipping to $62,500 and a 44% chance of a drop to $60,000.

The odds of a fall all the way to $50,000 were priced at just 2%.

The pattern points to traders betting on a narrow, volatile band rather than a decisive move in either direction.

Bitcoin has been stuck in range-bound trading since early June, when a monthly slide of more than 20% shook confidence.