Crypto Analysts: Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Over? Most Likely Yes.

If the market proves you wrong this month, don't fight it.

Author: Jake Pahor

Translated by: TechFlow

TechFlow Guide: While everyone waited for a September bottom, Bitcoin reversed course and reclaimed the 50-week moving average. Using historical data from six similar signals since 2012, this article breaks down which four triggered bull runs, which two were traps, and where this latest signal leans. For investors deciding whether to buy the dip, it’s a crucial, data-driven reference.

Six Reclaims of the Moving Average, Four Bull Market Starts

Everyone I’ve spoken to this month has been waiting for a September low. Bitcoin had other plans.

It had every reason to drop. The Fed hiked rates early Thursday Beijing time, the first increase since 2023. The next day, the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high. The U.S. Senate fell one vote short of passing the crypto market structure bill. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw their largest single-day outflows since June. Then on Friday Beijing time, Bitcoin rallied over 5% in a day, wiping out roughly $190 million in short positions within an hour, and by Sunday it had reclaimed the 50-week moving average for the first time since last November.

What people overlook is what happened historically after reclaiming this line. So I pulled our score history back to 2012, filtering for every instance where “Bitcoin closes weekly above the 50-week moving average for the first time after staying below it for a meaningful period.” That gives us six instances. Four launched bull markets. Two were traps. The signals that separate them are below, along with how this current situation stacks up.