Don't count on the landmark crypto policy bill to pass Congress this year, prediction traders say

Crypto bulls have been pushing for Congress to pass a major piece of legislation aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the industry, but prediction markets say don't count on it this year.

Traders on Polymarket give it only a 15% chance of being signed into law in 2026. Traders on Kalshi have laid similar bets.

Donald Trump, who's financial disclosures show that his personal crypto profits reached $1.2 billion in 2025, has been advocating for lawmakers to get the bill passed, and industry group have been actively lobbying for it this year.

The platform shows that one user who joined Polymarket recently purchased 1,052,873.8 "No" contracts at roughly $0.78 each, totaling over $818,000 at the time. Prediction market intelligence platform Predictbook wrote on X that the account was created just three hours prior to making its big bet.

According to Predictbook, another user spent about $677,000 on Tuesday through three separate "No" contract buys.

In the past 24 hours, sentiment on Polymarket has continued to shifted in a bearish direction when it comes to odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year. Data shows traders bet roughly $26,903 that the bill will not become law this year, either by buying "No" contracts or selling "Yes" contracts. On the other hand, those who did the opposite, buying "Yes" contracts and selling "No," wagered around $11,000.