Bilello said the federal government collected $334 billion in July while spending $766 billion. This resulted in an eye-popping $432 billion deficit for the month.
"This is getting scary," Novogratz wrote. He argued that the United States needs to reverse the trajectory of its finances and said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was right to focus on the so-called "3-3-3" economic framework (3% real economic growth, reducing the deficit to 3% of gross domestic product and boosting U.S. oil production by 3 million barrels per day). “Unfortunately we aren’t even close to that,” Novogratz said.
The Congressional Budget Office projected in February that the federal budget deficit would reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2026.
The CBO also projected that debt held by the public would reach 101% of GDP this year and rise to 120% by 2036 if current laws remain broadly unchanged.
More recent CBO figures have also shown that the fiscal imbalance remains persistent. The federal government had accumulated a $1.4 trillion deficit during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, according to the agency's estimates. “At one point the bond market will force fiscal discipline,” Novogratz wrote.
Novogratz also linked the fiscal picture to inflation. “Inflation across so many sectors over the past 10 years is directly correlated to this massive increase in debt,” he said.
The billionaire said incumbents from both major U.S. political parties could feel this during the midterms. "The government's inability to deal with its spending addiction," he concluded, "keeps me bullish BTC even in a year where the energy in the crypto space is low."
