Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September

In brief

• Polymarket is pricing in a 74% chance of no change at the next Fed meeting, and just 25% on a quarter-point hike.
• Kalshi's September Fed-decision contract prices a 73.5% hold, with roughly $10 million wagered on the outcome.
• Myriad's "Fed Decision in September?" market lists "No Change" at about 75% odds, and resolves after the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

Prediction markets are converging on the same forecast for the Federal Reserve's September meeting: don't expect anything to change.

Polymarket's "Fed Decision in September?" market puts the odds of no change at 74%, with a quarter-point hike at 25% and a cut near 1%, on $33.9 million in volume. CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi lands almost identically at 73.5%, backed by close to $10 million wagered, while Myriad, the prediction platform run by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, has "No Change" trading around 71%.

The spread across all three is tight enough to read as consensus.

Traders and investors track Fed decisions so closely because the federal funds rate ripples through nearly every corner of financial markets. The rate sets the baseline cost of borrowing money, which in turn shapes how much investors are willing to pay for riskier bets.