TD Cowen: Democratic Congress Would Sink CLARITY Act for Two Years

A Democratic sweep of Congress would end the CLARITY Act’s chances for the next two years and sour the political climate for crypto, TD Cowen’s Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote to Bitcoin Magazine and clients in an election-day note.

Seiberg wrote that TD Cowen agrees with polls and prediction markets that Democrats are likely to take both chambers, with the caveat that polls taken a month out, which were more mixed, tend to beat those taken on the eve of a vote. 

His conclusion for crypto is blunt: “Democrats will likely investigate Trump including his crypto entanglements. We see this as souring the political environment for crypto, which is why we do not expect the Clarity Act to pass over the next two years.”

The market structure bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15. If it does not pass before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, it dies and must be reintroduced. 

Seiberg added that crypto’s influence may shrink further in Congress if Sherrod Brown wins his Ohio Senate race, a contest the industry spent to lose.

In Congress, the Senate is the lever

The note treats Senate control as the bigger prize. A Democratic majority could block Trump’s nominees and use that power to force him to fill Democratic seats on the FDIC, SEC and CFTC, the three agencies at the center of crypto policy.