What the Fed and Bank of Japan Decisions Mean for Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell far less than crypto stocks when the bill stalled. Its real tests are the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

Bitcoin's next move depends less on Congress than on the price of money.

Posted September 17, 2026 at 4:22 pm EST.

The Clarity Act died on Tuesday.

The Senate voted 49 to 50—short of the 60 needed to even start debate, with zero Democrats voting to proceed. After a year of negotiations and 126 changes to win over Democrats, the industry’s largest regulatory push collapsed.

The market felt it instantly. Coinbase closed down 10.1%, Circle fell 11.5%, Galaxy dropped 7.6%, and Strategy slid 5.4%.

Bitcoin dropped 3.6%.

Why did bitcoin drop only a third as far? Because Coinbase and Circle are companies. A dead bill directly guts their earnings, ending the rules they needed to operate cleanly in the US.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has no earnings for a bill to hit. It is money people hold instead of dollars in the bank—and dollars earn interest. Speculation aside, bitcoin pays you nothing. The higher interest rates climb, the more yield you sacrifice by holding it.

That brings us to the test that actually matters this week. Central banks set that yield: the Federal Reserve raised its rate on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to follow on Friday.