The Capital Required Exceeds What Is Realistic
Thielen estimates it took approximately $1 trillion in total inflows over 15 years to bring BTC's market cap to its current level. Pushing the price to $1 million per coin from here would require an additional $15 trillion in fresh capital. That is equivalent to roughly 25% of the entire US stock market flowing into a single asset over just four years. "It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher," he said, describing the $1 million target as "totally mathematically unrealistic."
Thielen also raised a behavioral factor that he believes caps demand at higher price levels. He said retail investors generally want to own a whole unit of an asset and become reluctant to buy fractions. "Maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin," he said, paraphrasing the mindset he sees among ordinary buyers. He added that the term "satoshis" does not carry the same psychological appeal as the word "Bitcoin," which he sees as a structural drag on retail demand as prices climb.
The $1 million by 2030
forecast has been made publicly by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argued that large round-number predictions earn outsized media attention precisely because of their size. He also said those forecasts can do real harm to retail investors by creating expectations that even a partial outcome would produce substantial gains.
Related Article: 3 Ways Bitcoin Price Could Hit $1M, According to BTC Bulls
What Thielen Thinks Is Actually Achievable
Thielen warned against assuming BTC will follow the same recovery patterns seen in earlier market cycles. A larger market cap means each meaningful price increase now requires far more capital than before. He described a return to $100,000 as "a big, big achievement" in the current environment and said he would not expect new all-time highs in the near term.
When asked directly whether $1 million is possible at some point beyond 2030, Thielen stopped short of ruling it out. He said reaching that number would require a catastrophic breakdown of the broader financial system. "It would require a major credit event, implosion of everything," he said. BTC was down 2.35% in the 30 days before the interview was published. Thielen said 10x Research entered the year with a conservative outlook and described that positioning as correct in hindsight.
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