Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaiming $100,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000
Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaiming $100,000 in 2026.
Benzinga
Publisher
Aug 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM UTC · 1 min read
Entities
bitcoin
Market Impact
BTC+6.92%$76,850
Last Updated
8 days ago
Bitcoin to $100,000 Unlikely in 2026?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns only a 9% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 and beyond this year, down from a high of 91% in January.
Similarly, chances of BTC reaching $90,000 fell from 71% in early May to 16% as of this writing.
Interestingly, the odds of Bitcoin moving lower were relatively higher. Punters have priced in a 23% possibility of Bitcoin declining below $45,000, alongside a 15% chance of a drop below $40,000.
Divergent Outlooks for Bitcoin
Forecasts about Bitcoin’s price action have surged. even as the asset struggles through a drawn-out bear market.
Bitcoin moved from $65,050.1 to $76,810.1 over the last 30-day period, a gain of 18.1 percent.
Source: Kraken · NewsLayer Markets · Updated in a few seconds
Popular market analyst Alessio Rastani predicted Bitcoin would crash to $20,000 by the end of 2027 before making a sharp recovery.
Bitcoin rallied to its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025. Since then, the apex cryptocurrency has collapsed nearly 505.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,730.30, down 0.04% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
Follow the Story
- Aug 13Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000
- Aug 21Bitcoin's Bear Is Ready For Hibernation (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)
- Aug 21WuBlockchain Weekly: Bitcoin Surges Sharply, Citi to Launch Bitcoin Custody Service and Trump Says Hyperliquid to Enter US Market Compliantly, etc
- Aug 21Analysts split on whether Bitcoin's surge past key levels signals a new bull run
- Aug 13Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000
- Aug 21Bitcoin's Bear Is Ready For Hibernation (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)
- Aug 21WuBlockchain Weekly: Bitcoin Surges Sharply, Citi to Launch Bitcoin Custody Service and Trump Says Hyperliquid to Enter US Market Compliantly, etc
- Aug 21Analysts split on whether Bitcoin's surge past key levels signals a new bull run
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Originally reported by Benzinga
NewsLayer coverage based on externally reported material.
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Market Context
Bitcoin
BTC
$76,857
+6.93% (24H)
Market Cap
$1.54T
Circulating Supply
20.1M BTC
24H Volume
$66.9B
24H High
$79,511
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