Bitcoin 100K Odds: Kalshi's Ladder And The 50K Race

Updated August 28, 2026 · by Jake Hari

Ladder and race prices fetched August 28, 2026, at 8:10 p.m. CT (01:10 UTC Aug. 29). Ladder panel run July 24, 2026; race-market panel run August 28, 2026, on market data fetched at 5:54 p.m. CT.

The Quick Answer

Bitcoin trades near $77,700. Kalshi's year-end rung on a $100,000 touch is quoted 21¢ bid and 22¢ ask, so the exchange gives 2026 a little better than one-in-five, and the eight-model panel that priced the full ladder price-blind put 68% on "not this year." The newer contract on the same board, whether Bitcoin falls to $50,000 before it climbs to $100,000, is quoted 13¢ bid and 17¢ ask, and seven price-blind models put the fall at 14%, the climb at 27%, and four more months of neither at 60%. The race market's settlement rules, the refreshed month-by-month ladder, and where the two boards agree are below.

Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief

The 8-model panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays.

Unsubscribe anytime, one click. We never share your email.

The 50K-Before-100K Race Market

Bitcoin touched $81,480 on Friday morning, August 28, its highest print since May. By the evening it was at $77,756. In between, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stood up at Jackson Hole and told the room that inflation is running at 3.7% over 12 months, that the six-month rate is worse at 4.1%, and that the 2% target is "a firm, fixed target." Bloomberg's story that afternoon tied the slip below $80,000 directly to Warsh's inflation vow.