October is the month because previous Bitcoin market bottoms have gradually moved earlier in the calendar. Earlier cycles bottomed in January and December, while the previous cycle bottomed in November.
A bear market lasting about 52 to 54 weeks from the previous top would place the potential bottom in early to late October. A longer 59-week bear market would push the timing toward late November.
2018 Bear Market Offers Another Comparison
The current market structure also resembles Bitcoin’s 2018 bear market.
In 2018, Bitcoin formed a low in February, a higher low in March or April, and then fell to a lower low during the summer. A similar pattern has appeared in 2026, with a February low, a higher low in late March or early April, followed by another decline during the summer.
The major difference is price. Bitcoin was around $6,000 during the comparable period in 2018, while it is now holding around $60,000. The current cycle also had less retail excitement at the top than the 2017 cycle, which could explain why the market has been less volatile.
Bitcoin Could Still Follow a Longer Path
A drop below the June-July low during August or September would strengthen the case for an October bottom. However, Bitcoin could also remain near $60,000 for several months. That would resemble 2018, when Bitcoin moved sideways for much of August, September and October before a later breakdown.
If that pattern repeats, the market bottom could move into November or even later. The analysis puts the main potential bottom window between late September and mid-December, while October remains the key month to watch.
The next 60 days will show whether Bitcoin breaks lower, holds around current levels or delays the next major move.
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