Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, With Long-Term Holder Supply a Key Factor

Bitcoin volatility has fallen to historically low levels, with supply held by long-term holders emerging as a key factor behind the recent calm.

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Sep 8, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC · 1 Min. Lesezeit

Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, With Long-Term Holder Supply a Key Factor — NewsLayer editorial artwork

Key Signal

19% LTH volatility explanatory power

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bitcoin

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BTC-0.68%$77,367

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin volatility is currently at historically low levels.
Glassnode said long-term holder (LTH) supply is having a major influence in explaining the low volatility and showed the closest relationship with Bitcoin's realized volatility.
Glassnode said illiquid supply, futures open interest (OI), market capitalization, and spot trading volume had less influence on volatility than long-term holder supply.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin volatility has fallen to historically low levels, with supply held by long-term holders emerging as a key factor behind the recent calm.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Sept. 8 that Bitcoin volatility is currently at historically low levels. The firm said elevated long-term holder supply is having a major influence in explaining the subdued volatility.

Glassnode's analysis found that long-term holder, or LTH, supply showed the closest relationship with changes in Bitcoin's realized volatility, with explanatory power of about 19%. Illiquid supply followed at about 12%. By contrast, market capitalization accounted for only about 3%.

The ratio of futures open interest, or OI, to market capitalization and spot trading volume also had less influence on volatility than long-term holder supply, according to the firm.

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