Bitcoin consolidates as Russian foreign trade allowed crypto payments from September

Medium-term selling pressure as technicals diverge on momentum

On the technical front, BTC/USD sits below the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the H4 chart and remains under the 200-period moving average on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance stands at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $63,517, with the expected support level at $61,126. Momentum readings show the MACD in a strong sell configuration, supported by the ADX confirming prevailing selling pressure. Oscillators are mixed: RSI is in the sell zone, Stoch RSI is overbought, and CCI is neutral. Intraday, Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance, creating a divergence between short-term buying interest and the medium-term bearish momentum backdrop.

Range-bound outlook as resistance and support cap volatility

Looking ahead, BTC/USD is likely to remain range-bound in the coming sessions, with anticipated volatility contained between $61,126 and $64,346. Probabilities favor a 70% chance of a downward move versus 30% for a break higher. Sideways action within this volatility band is the baseline scenario unless price action decisively clears resistance at $63,517 to trigger a bullish shift, or loses support at $61,126 to confirm renewed selling pressure.

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin was experiencing technical weakness and persistent downside risks amid low volatility and regulatory uncertainty. The latest regulatory restrictions in Russia further limit liquidity and domestic participation, reinforcing the case for a cautiously range-bound trading approach and putting added emphasis on the need to monitor for a decisive move beyond key resistance or support levels.