Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Driven by Short Covering, Not Fresh Leverage: QCP

Bitcoin's recent uptick faces questions as liquidity remains narrow, the Fed stays hawkish, and fresh leverage has yet to emerge.

Bitcoin has gained almost 23% over the past month, but a few choppy sessions briefly dragged the asset below $76,500. BTC has since stabilized above $77,700 following a minor 1.4% surge on Thursday.

The latest uptick came mainly from short covering rather than a fresh increase in leverage, according to QCP Capital, as markets continued to face a firm Federal Reserve stance.

Fragile Positioning?

Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed’s focus on maintaining a 2% PCE inflation target, while headline PCE remains at 3.7%. This leaves little visible support for near-term rate cuts. Treasury long-end buybacks were doubled to $4 billion quarterly, but QCP said the amount represents only 0.013% of the $31.5 trillion Treasury market, which points to liquidity support rather than a policy pivot.

Heavy long-dated investment-grade issuance is also adding pressure, as technology companies account for 38% of 10-year-plus supply. Additionally, ETF inflows near the 95th percentile indicate genuine spot demand, although MSTR’s Bitcoin accumulation was funded through equity issuance.