[Analysis] Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Selling Cools as Market Regains Rationality

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin inflows to exchanges from long-term holders have fallen well below the annual average, suggesting selling by long-term investors is easing, according to an analysis.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, wrote on September 26 that an interesting shift is emerging in Bitcoin exchange inflows from long-term holders. Their activity has cooled recently, with inflows to exchanges running well below the annual average.

Long-term holders generally refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for an extended period without moving it. Because transfers of their holdings to exchanges can signal preparations to sell, the metric is used to gauge potential selling pressure in the market.

Darkfost said exchange inflows from long-term holders were particularly active at the March 2024 bull-market peak. At the time, those inflows rose to more than five times the annual average. By contrast, activity was relatively subdued at the 2025 peak, before increasing again as the bear market began in earnest.

He said the pattern also aligns with loss realization by investors who bought Bitcoin at the peak. That activity has now cooled and remains far below the annual average. The behavior of long-term holders is changing, and the market is gradually becoming more rational, he added.