Bitcoin buying activity falls to 2022-era levels — Has the market fully reset?

Short-term holders are facing unrealized losses, but no mass panic yet

Currently, the average cost basis of Bitcoin for STHs is at $67,105. The $65k-$67k area has been a stern supply zone. Therefore, a potential price bounce could be met with these holders looking to exit at breakeven.

Using the STH MVRV pricing bands, analyst Axel Adler Jr. demonstrated that holders were underwater, but the bands’ structure was intact. The STH MVRV was around 0.94 and has been below 1 for 98 consecutive days, showing they remained holding unrealized losses.

The Bitcoin price is still above the –1σ band at $59.3k. The -2σ deep-stress zone was at $49.2k.

The SOPR measures if holders are selling at a profit or loss. The current reading of 0.996 shows STHs are selling at a minor loss, but there is no deep flush here yet.

There is pressure on the market, but no capitulation yet. An MVRV and SOPR turnaround back above 1 would signal profitability, and if sustained, would show that demand is absorbing the supply.

Aggressive buyer volume reaches historically low levels

The 30-day average of the taker buy volume on Binance reached $3.3 billion, the lowest since the July 2023 consolidation around $30k. The metric has revisited a zone that marked the 2022 cycle bottom.

This record contraction in aggressive buying volume reflected fading speculative interest, a broader loss in market conviction, and a lack of urgency among buyers to hoard more Bitcoin, wrote analyst Moreno on CryptoQuant.

It is not a reversal signal, but only points to a reset in market participation.

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Final Summary

• The short-term holder cohort of under 155 days faced moderate losses, but has not witnessed severe capitulation and a bearish flush yet.
• The taker buy volume was at historically low levels, a condition that has accompanied previous cycle bottoms.

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