Bitcoin Rebounds, but Supply-Demand Improvement Remains Elusive as Sell Pressure Builds on Binance

As Bitcoin recovers from its recent decline to around $81,000, on-chain data is raising questions about the sustainability of the advance. Even as the price rebounds, sellable supply continues to accumulate on one of the world's largest exchanges. There is still insufficient evidence to conclude that the market has entered a genuine recovery phase.

Price merely reflects the outcome of buying and selling. On-chain data, by contrast, reveals where assets are moving behind the scenes. The key observation here is that Bitcoin that could potentially be sold continues to flow into exchanges even as the price recovers.

Bitcoin Concentrating on Binance

When analyzing global exchange trends, Binance's presence is overwhelming. According to data compiled by CoinGecko covering ten major centralized exchanges, Binance accounted for 38.3% of spot trading volume in December 2025. Its trading volume reached approximately $361.8 billion (about ¥56.8 trillion), roughly four times the scale of second-place Bybit at approximately $90 billion (about ¥14.1 trillion).

Asset inflows into a venue that concentrates this much trading activity cannot be ignored when assessing market supply and demand. Changes in supply occurring on Binance serve as a critical clue for understanding the global Bitcoin market. For Japanese users, Binance Japan provides services, so it would be inaccurate to broadly claim that "Binance is unavailable from Japan." This article examines on-chain data that CryptoQuant aggregates under the Binance label.