He said the United States needs to reverse its current fiscal trajectory. He also said attention should be paid to the “3-3-3” economic framework put forward by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (스콧 베센트). The plan refers to 3 percent real economic growth, cutting the fiscal deficit by 3 percent of gross domestic product, and increasing U.S. crude oil production by 3 million barrels a day. He added that the United States is not even close to the targets.
A projection the U.S. Congressional Budget Office released in February also aligns with such concerns. The CBO forecast public debt would reach 101 percent of GDP this year and, if current laws are largely maintained, rise to 120 percent by 2036. CBO estimates put the cumulative deficit for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 at $1.4 trillion.
Novogratz said the bond market will ultimately enforce fiscal discipline. He added that inflation seen across multiple sectors over the past 10 years is directly linked to the sharp rise in debt, and that incumbents in the two major U.S. parties could feel the issue in midterm elections. He said that even in years when energy in the crypto market is subdued, the government’s failure to control spending keeps the bullish case for bitcoin intact.
The widening U.S. fiscal deficit is a macro variable bitcoin bulls have consistently focused on. That is because concerns have been raised that the faster government debt grows, the greater the risk over the long term of currency value erosion and inflation pressure. In that case, the argument goes, bitcoin, with supply capped at 21 million, could gain relative appeal as a scarce asset like gold.
Still, a larger fiscal deficit does not immediately lead to a rise in bitcoin prices. If Treasury yields rise or the dollar strengthens, risk appetite across broader risk assets could be dampened. For U.S. fiscal instability to act as a positive for bitcoin, concerns about currency dilution from rising debt must stand out more than the burden from higher rates.
The remarks are notable for focusing on the macro fiscal environment rather than bitcoin’s price itself. The argument is that even when internal market catalysts are weak, a widening U.S. deficit and rising debt can support the investment case for bitcoin. As a result, markets are expected to watch how U.S. fiscal deficit trends, changes in debt ratios and the bond market’s response affect bitcoin sentiment.
This is getting scary. As a country we need to turn this around. Sec Bessent was correct in targeting 3-3-3. Unfortunately we aren’t even close to that. War doesn’t help. A Congress that never says “no” doesn’t help. At one point t the bond market will force fiscal… https://t.co/as63M3D9L7
