Polymarket Odds Today: Bitcoin October, Sweden PM, World Series MVP

Polymarket's October Bitcoin market has $11.3 million traded, and its two closest lines are almost a coin flip. A dip to $77,500 before the month ends is 50% (+100). A run to $82,500 is 46% (+117). The wider lines are a dip to $75,000 at 21% (+376) and a run to $85,000 at 16% (+525).

Bitcoin traded at about $80,029 early Monday, according to Crypto Times, citing CoinGecko. That puts the $77,500 line about 3.2% below the price and the $82,500 line about 3.1% above it. The 24-hour low was about $79,400. Phemex News notes that is only $100 above Saturday's low, so the coin has now tested the same level twice in three days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had a record one-day net outflow of $635.49 million on Oct. 22, per Phemex.

The catalyst is Wednesday. The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Polymarket makes no change a 94% favorite, but a December hike is 77%. Anything hawkish from Warsh would hit risk assets in the last three days of the month.

The pick: Yes on Bitcoin dipping to $77,500 in October, at 50% (+100). Both targets are about the same distance away, so the question is which way the coin is moving, and the recent signals point down: two tests of $79,400 in three days, record ETF outflows and a Fed that the crowd expects to hike again. This should be closer to 55% to 60%.