[Analysis] Bitcoin Falls Despite ‘Golden Cross’ as Rally Was Already Priced In

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin has fallen despite forming a so-called golden cross, a widely watched bullish signal, in a sign the indicator does not guarantee short-term gains.

CoinDesk reported on September 11 that Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week, but the price subsequently slipped to about $77,000 from $80,000. It said similar cases in the past often saw a substantial portion of the rally completed before the golden cross appeared, followed by a short-term pullback.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average, which reflects the short-term trend, rises above the 200-day moving average, which tracks the longer-term trend. It is generally interpreted as a bullish signal pointing to the start of a medium- to long-term uptrend.

But Bitcoin had already gained about 32% to $82,000 from $62,000 before the latest golden cross emerged. Although the signal formed earlier this week, the price was pushed back to around $77,000.

CoinDesk said a golden cross can be a bullish signal over the long term, but it is inherently a lagging indicator that reflects price moves after the fact. By the time the signal appears, much of the advance may already have taken place.