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Bitcoin Bottom? BTC Network Activity Drops to 2018 Bear Market Levels

Bitcoin network activity has fallen to levels last seen around the 2018–2019 bear market, according to CryptoQuant analyst thechessONCHAIN.

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Market Context

Bitcoin

BTC

$63,300

-0.19% 24h

Layer Index

Neutral

Layer Index

Bitcoin network activity has fallen to levels last seen around the 2018–2019 bear market, according to CryptoQuant analyst thechessONCHAIN.

The 30-day moving average of active Bitcoin addresses fell to 609,688 on July 19, 2026, while the 100-day average declined to 621,957 on July 27. For comparison, similar lows were recorded at 570,710 in July 2018 and 605,433 in January 2019, respectively.

Active addresses measure unique Bitcoin addresses that send or receive BTC on a given day. However, the metric does not represent the exact number of users, since one person or entity can control multiple addresses. Moving averages help smooth daily volatility and provide a clearer view of broader network activity trends.

Bitcoin Active Addresses Return to 2018–2019 Levels

The analyst compared the latest decline with Bitcoin's previous major bear-market cycle.

When Bitcoin bottomed at $3,206 on December 14, 2018, both activity averages were actually higher than their latest lows, at 625,967 for the 30-day average and 632,754 for the 100-day average.

Exponential Averages of Bitcoin Active Addresses (EMA30 and EMA100). Source: thechessONCHAIN

More importantly, the lows in network activity did not line up precisely with Bitcoin's price bottom. The 30-day average reached its low 166 days before BTC bottomed, while the 100-day average reached its low 44 days afterward.

Similar activity levels also appeared during the 2016–2017 bull market. That suggests low active-address counts alone cannot reliably identify either a bear-market bottom or the timing of a price reversal.

Historical comparisons therefore provide useful context, but they should not be treated as a standalone trading signal.

Bitcoin Network Activity Begins to Recover

The current cycle presents a somewhat different setup.

Bitcoin reached a local low of $58,535 on June 30, 2026. The lows in the two activity averages followed 19 and 27 days later. Since then, both measures have turned higher, reaching 664,764 and 640,603 by August 8.

The analyst describes this as a ”joint recovery”: Bitcoin remains above its June price low while both active-address averages have moved back above their July lows.

That combination is consistent with a possible bottoming structure, although the historical data does not establish a direct causal relationship between rising network activity and a Bitcoin price bottom.

Three levels are particularly important for the current setup: 609,688 for the 30-day activity average, 621,957 for the 100-day average, and $58,535 for Bitcoin itself.

If one of the activity averages falls below its July low again, it would weaken that part of the recovery signal. The deeper 2018–2019 readings remain historical reference points rather than specific downside targets.

A sustained move below $58,535, meanwhile, would invalidate the current price-bottom hypothesis.

For now, thechessONCHAIN's data points to a potential recovery in Bitcoin network activity alongside price stabilization—not an independent buy signal.

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