Why a weekend break below $62,500 could unleash a Bitcoin selling wave toward $58,500

Bitcoin trades near $62,900 heading into the weekend, having touched an intraday low of $62,538 on Aug. 14. That low effectively tested the $62,500 to $62,560 zone that has held as the floor of a five-week trading range between roughly $62,000 and $66,000.

Bitfinex found Bitcoin tested the $65,000 to $65,500 region six times between Aug. 5 and Aug. 10 without producing a single daily close above $65,000. Bitcoin sits about 0.5% above its floor and needs roughly 3.3% to reclaim its ceiling.

A week of macro relief Bitcoin failed to convert

July payrolls fell by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. July CPI rose just 0.1% month on month, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% year on year and core inflation at 2.5%.

Headline producer prices came in flat for July, though the underlying measure excluding food, energy and trade services still rose 0.4% on the month. Retail sales then fell 0.6% on Aug. 14 morning, the first monthly decline in nine months, and the combined data pushed September rate-hike odds down to 31%, from 59% a week earlier.

Equities absorbed that relief, with the S&P 500 closing at a record on Aug. 13. Bitcoin lagged, unable to sustain a move through $64,000 to $65,000 even as the macro backdrop turned friendlier.