Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history

U.S. midterm elections are just 10 days away and bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 is approaching a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms, although this year’s recovery suggests the timing could differ.

Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, shortly after the preceding midterms. Those lows arrived approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.

This year, bitcoin’s lowest price so far came much earlier. Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, some 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22, the price had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low.

Historical returns also reveal substantial weakness over the broader pre-election period. Bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.

Technology stocks have also experienced weakness around midterms. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, with much of the decline occurring after election day. It also dropped 17% in the three months preceding the 2022 vote. However, QQQ gained 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms, showing the pattern is not entirely consistent.