Bitcoin Bear Market Debate: Is the 40% Rebound a New Bull Cycle?

TLDR:

• Bitcoin rebounded nearly 40% from its late-June low, reigniting the bull versus bear market debate.
• didier cites Bitcoin’s reclaimed 200-day moving average as an early signal of a new bull market.
• Griffin says the bear market persists until dollar liquidity and Treasury yield signals turn clearer.
• Strategy’s STRC is perpetual preferred stock, not traditional debt, easing fears of a forced default.

Bitcoin has climbed roughly 40% from its late-June low. The rally is fueling fresh debate over whether the bear market has ended.

Episode 117 of the WuBlockchain Podcast, published September 2, 2026, featured investor didier and portfolio manager Griffin Ardern.

The two disagreed sharply on where the cycle stands. didier called the move the start of a new bull market. Griffin said the bear market is not yet finished.

Has Bitcoin’s Rally Already Signaled A New Bull Market?

Bitcoin fell briefly below $58,000 in late June before climbing past $81,000. didier called that a gain that marks the opening phase of a bull market. “My view is very clear: this is a bull market, either in its opening phase or very early stages,” he said. He pointed to Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day moving average as the clearest signal.