10x Research's Thielen: $1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is Impossible

At the time of publication bitcoin traded near $63,868 with a market cap around $1.28 trillion, leaving it well below the $126,000 all-time high.

Retail psychology and unit bias

Thielen also argued that higher prices weaken retail appetite because buyers want a whole coin rather than a fraction.

He said:

“People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”

He added that “satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin.”

Warning on headline price targets

The $1 million forecast has been floated by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, which Thielen says generates easy press coverage.

He warned that such calls can mislead smaller buyers who assume even half the target guarantees profit.

Asked when $1 million might realistically arrive, Thielen would not rule it out entirely but said it would take extreme conditions:

“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”

He added that a return to $100,000 next year would already be “a big, big achievement.”