Famous Crypto Analyst Says, “I Was Wrong”: “Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is a Complete Illusion”

Gambardello also noted that strong inflows into spot ETFs, expectations of a crypto-friendly political environment, and high market interest played a significant role in Bitcoin previously surpassing its all-time high. However, the analyst stated that he does not consider this rise to be the “true crypto bull market,” arguing that a stronger movement could begin in the coming period as economic expansion accelerates.

The analyst supported his thesis not only with Bitcoin but also with assets sensitive to economic growth, such as the copper-gold ratio and the Russell 2000. According to Gambardello, these assets weaken during periods of economic contraction and strengthen during periods of expansion. The cryptocurrency market, however, is located at the more extreme end of the risk curve, and therefore reacts to economic recovery more slowly than other asset classes. Gambardello believes that the sideways movement seen in the altcoin market, particularly outside of major cryptocurrencies, throughout 2026 can be explained by this delay.

Another point Gambardello highlighted was the end of the monetary tightening process. According to the analyst, after the Fed’s quantitative tightening ends in December 2025, a normalization process will begin in the markets, and the economic cycle will turn back towards expansion. Gambardello stated that their self-developed US Business Cycle Index also recently signaled expansion. He said that the index combines the monthly manufacturing surveys of five regional Fed banks and generates a signal of economic expansion if it remains above certain thresholds for three consecutive months.

The analyst also believes that AI-driven productivity increases could accelerate economic growth in the coming years. Gambardello stated that an economic environment similar to the strong productivity period of the 1990s could emerge, and that Bitcoin and crypto assets could play a significant role in this process with trends such as institutionalization, tokenization, and the AI economy moving onto the blockchain.

*This is not investment advice.