U.S. September rate hike odds at 55.5 percent; bitcoin holds $78,000 level

[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] As expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate increase in September overtook forecasts for a hold, bitcoin held the $78,000 level.

On Aug. 31 (local time), the blockchain outlet The Defiant reported that on prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting stood at 55.5 percent, above the 43.5 percent chance of a hold.

The repricing gathered pace after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took a cautious stance on slowing inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 29. Warsh said it was difficult to view this summer's price indicators as having improved in a meaningful way. He also did not separately address the direction of monetary policy, saying, "We are committed to discipline."

The bond market also reacted immediately. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.73 percent on Aug. 29 from 4.67 percent the previous day, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.22 percent from 5.19 percent. Over the same period, Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel and U.S. stocks started lower. Gold prices also fell for a second straight day.

Bitcoin, however, showed a relatively firm trend even as rate expectations shifted and as fallout from a weekend military clash between the United States and Iran weighed on markets. Bitcoin is holding the $78,000 range, and ether is also above the $2,470 level. XRP fell 6.60 percent over the past 7 days to $1.38. Solana slipped slightly over the past 24 hours to $103, but kept a weekly gain of 5.95 percent. BNB fell 1.57 percent to $691.03.