Bitcoin eyes $65,000 again — but $100,000 will need rate-cut hopes to deepen

Inflows through bitcoin spot ETFs have continued as well. Daily net inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $98.85 million on Friday, according to SoSoValue. Cumulative net inflows so far in August stand at $853.54 million. While that has yet to fully offset the net outflows recorded in May and June, ETF-driven buying has persisted even during periods of price stagnation.

Butterfill forecast that "bitcoin will trade sideways for the next two to three months" and that "it will be difficult to sustain a rally above $80,000." He said a sustained climb to $100,000 would require a more pronounced deterioration in employment data to build rate-cut expectations. "Tensions with Iran remain highly uncertain, and the Fed does not appear willing to signal a dovish monetary policy stance," he added. "A dovish message from the Jackson Hole symposium later this month is not expected either."

Domestic analysts also lean toward bitcoin trading in a range for now. Park Seong-je, a researcher at Shinhan Investment, wrote in a Friday report that "bitcoin fluctuated between $62,800 and $64,800 this week before recovering to $64,000, supported by bargain-hunting inflows into US spot ETFs," and projected "a short-term range of $62,000 to $68,000." He said a break above $65,000, sustained ETF net inflows and an increase in spot trading volume would all need to be confirmed before bitcoin could test the $68,000 resistance level.

Park noted that the total market capitalization of digital assets stood at $2.17 trillion, up slightly from the previous week, and that bitcoin's share of that total was 59.2 percent. "Investors are concentrating their buying in bitcoin, which offers relatively higher liquidity and defensiveness compared to more volatile altcoins," he said.

Meanwhile, expectations for the US Digital Asset Market Structure Act — known as the CLARITY Act — to pass this year have fallen sharply. The Senate adjourned for its August recess without holding a vote on the bill, pushing deliberations to September.

Prediction market platform Polymarket currently puts the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted this year at 16 percent. Sen. Thom Tillis, who has been involved in negotiations over the bill, said the chances of passage had "dropped dramatically" and that returning from a month-long recess with midterm elections looming would make it harder to advance the legislation, Politico reported. After the recess, lawmakers would have only about three weeks to act before the midterm election campaign intensifies, and key sticking points — including ethics provisions for public officials — remain unresolved between the two parties.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, the largest US digital asset exchange, said he was "disappointed that the Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act this week, but confirmed the intent to bring it to the floor in September." He added: "Everyone hopes the bill passes so we can move on to the next stage."

kyoung@heraldcorp.com

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.