The altcoin season index suggests that the long-awaited altseason is yet to come.
On CoinMarketCap, the altcoin season index is currently at 41, meaning that less than a half of altcoins beat Bitcoin’s performance over the last 90 days. The website considers 75% to be the threshold for altseason.
However, the BlockchainCenter altcoin season index is at 57. The reason for this discrepancy is that BlockchainCenter takes 50 largest eligible coins into consideration as compared to CoinMarketCap’s 100. Its threshold for altseason is same: 75%.
Bitcoin trades around $63,700 and controls more than half of total crypto capitalization. Ethereum is around $1,625, while Solana’s price hovers near $78. The market is showing strength in some areas, but not near enough to suggest a broad-based rotation into altcoins.
Related: Current Altcoin Season Index August 2026
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What Is the Altcoin Season Index?
The altcoin season index is a metric that seeks to estimate how many of the major altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin.
CoinMarketCap assesses which of the top 100 eligible cryptocurrencies have beaten the price performance of Bitcoin over 90 days. Stablecoins, asset-backed, and wrapped tokens are excluded.
The scale is straightforward:
- Between 0-25: Bitcoin Season
- 26-74: Transitionary
- 75-100: Altcoin Season
For an altcoin season, at least 75% of altcoins should outperform Bitcoin on a price basis during the rolling 90-day window.
BlockchainCenter’s methodology is rather similar but slightly different as they only take the top 50 eligible cryptocurrencies into consideration. That explains the variance between the two websites.
The crucial point is that the altseason is not defined by a couple of assets outperforming Bitcoin. Even if Ethereum and several other coins rallies by double digits, the altcoin season index will not reach 75 unless the majority of other cryptocurrencies follow suit.
Why Is the Altcoin Season Index Still Below 50?
The most apparent reason for the altcoin season index to stay below 50 is Bitcoin’s absolute dominance.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s market dominance is at around 56.5% as of writing. The asset’s total capitalization stands at approximately $1.28 trillion out of a $2.27 trillion. Stablecoins command another 13.4%, or around $303 billion. Therefore, there is significantly less room for other assets to grow and attract capital.
Related: Top 5 Altcoins for the Next 100x Crypto – Best Crypto to Buy Now 2026
Bitcoin dominance itself is not the reason for altcoins to struggle, but it surely plays an essential role. Both the altcoin season index and Bitcoin dominance are reflecting similar trends, but in reverse ways. When the lion’s share of capital is in Bitcoin, fewer altcoins can beat its performance. As capital rotates away from Bitcoin, its dominance decreases, and other assets’ overall capitalization increases.
In 2026, such rotation has not occurred yet. In fact, it has been the Bitcoin that has seen most of the upside in 2026.
Bitcoin Dominance Needs to Fall
A declining trend in Bitcoin dominance would suggest an impending altseason.
There is no specific level that would prompt an immediate start of an altseason, but the current levels of Bitcoin dominance, which are between 56-59%, are too high.
Read more: The Next 100% Crypto Movers? Top 7 Altcoins That Could Dominate H2 2026
The most recent example of Bitcoin dominance contraction occurred in 2021, when it dropped from around 69.5% to 38.2%. The entire capitalization rotated away from Bitcoin into Ethereum, DeFi, layer 1s, memecoins, and other assets. A similar move below 55% in Bitcoin dominance would suggest a start of an altseason in 2026.
However, it is not sufficient for Bitcoin dominance to hit 55% in 2026. In fact, a sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price, which will inevitably lead to lower dominance, will not necessarily set the conditions for an altseason. Capital might rotate out of Bitcoin into other asset classes rather than into altcoins.
Ethereum Needs to Start Beating Bitcoin
Ethereum plays a pivotal role in an altseason. As the second-largest cryptocurrency, it often takes the lion’s share of capital inflows after Bitcoin.
In other words, it is a critical indicator of whether other assets will follow, as reflected in the ETH▲$1,761.17/BTC▲$62,630.00 ratio. If Ether is able to outperform Bitcoin, it will set the tone for the rest of the altcoin market.
At the moment, with Bitcoin at $63,700 and ETH around $1,625, Ethereum’s price is at only 0.0255 BTC, or roughly 2.29%. Ethereum’s overall market capitalization is at around 10%, or 2.27 trillion, compared to Bitcoin’s 56.5%. Obviously, there is plenty of room for Ether to rise against Bitcoin.
More Altcoins Need to Rally at the Same Time
An altcoin season index, which is essentially a rolling 90-day price performance of major altcoins against Bitcoin, is the most critical indicator for an altseason. The number of 41 suggests that there is still quite a distance to go.
In other words, the market would need to move from the current 41 to 75, which is a significant jump. It would require most of the major altcoins to beat Bitcoin’s performance.
Related: Top 5 Altcoins Under $10 That Could Deliver Massive Returns in H2 2026
Altcoin Trading Volume Needs to Broaden
Price is a crucial consideration when discussing an altseason, but it only tells one part of the story.
Altcoin seasons are characterized by rising prices, especially among large-cap cryptocurrencies, increased trading volumes among big coins, and overall positive sentiment towards the market.
Trading volume is an essential component of any assessment of an altseason as volumes ndicate whether more capital is flowing into the market. Large-scale rallies in only a few altcoins will not be sufficient for an altseason. In fact, such a scenario may suggest that the rally is only limited to speculative coins or certain sectors. A true altseason encompasses the entire market.
