Moreover, Dhillon points to selling inside the crypto market. “Crypto-specific selling is adding to the pressure,” he said, while “Bitcoin has struggled to respond strongly even to softer U.S. inflation and labor data.”
Strategy is the largest of those sellers, having sold 6,948 coins this year starting with 32 in late May, and its most recent sale of 1,690 BTC went at an average of $64,262. That is roughly $11,000 below the $75,385 Strategy paid for its holdings on average, so the company is taking a loss to raise cash rather than waiting for a better Bitcoin price. Even so, it has bought 175,000 BTC and sold around 7,000 since January, so it is still buying far more than it sells.
Markus Levin, Co-Founder of XYO, sees Washington as the bigger drag on institutional appetite. “The continued delay around the CLARITY Act has added another layer of uncertainty at a time when investors are already reassessing their exposure, which can make sitting on the sidelines more attractive than adding risk,” he said.
However, Levin reads the outflows as a pause. “What stands out is how quickly institutional flows can change even as the underlying market remains relatively stable,” he said. “That tells us the ETF market is becoming a meaningful barometer of institutional conviction in Bitcoin.”
He believes long-term demand is still there, but institutions will want greater clarity on the rules and market structure before committing more capital. They now have a date for it, since the Senate votes on September 15 on whether to bring the CLARITY Act to the floor.
What Would Take Bitcoin Below $60,000?
Oil is the most immediate threat to the Bitcoin price. Ships have all but stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz since the 60-day truce between the US and Iran lapsed without a deal, and Brent crude has jumped almost 3% from $88 to nearly $91 a barrel, its highest in about three weeks.
Higher energy costs feed straight into inflation, which forces central banks to keep rates high. High rates then firm both the dollar and Treasury yields, and money moves out of assets like Bitcoin that pay nothing to hold.
Moreover, borrowed money would make any fall steeper than the selling alone justifies. Notional open interest stands at $48 billion, which is the total value of all outstanding futures positions, against daily trading volume of roughly $25 billion. Those positions are nearly twice the size of the market trading against them, so a modest push lower could force traders to sell and turn it into something faster.
Rates are the slower risk. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, who votes on rate decisions this year, has been pushing for a hike, pointing out that inflation has run above the 2% target for five years. She held that position after July CPI came in at 3.4% and producer prices at 4.7%, so even cooling inflation has not softened the hawks.
However, the ETF flows are the weakest part of the bearish case. Last week’s $389.71 million is 0.5% of the $76.61 billion these funds hold, and negative sessions have become routine, climbing from 31% of trading days in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and 54% so far in 2026.
Will Bitcoin Drop Below $60K?
The Bitcoin price could hold above $60,000 for now. August is still net positive at $463.83 million, which averages $46.4 million a day across ten sessions, and a single negative week no longer signals much in a year where most sessions have been negative.
Dhillon expects the flow pressure itself to ease. “I’d expect Bitcoin ETF flows to remain choppy this week, but the pace of outflows could ease from last week’s $389.7 million,” he said, adding that the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, due Wednesday, could be the week’s key catalyst.
Oil could still change that. If Hormuz stays closed and Brent keeps climbing, the dollar and yields would firm together, and institutions have avoided Bitcoin in that environment all year.
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