Bitcoin Analyst Admits His Rate-Hike Thesis 'Was Not Rooted in the Data'

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen admitted Wednesday that his bearish rate-hike thesis on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) missed the mark, conceding the data never actually supported it.

Where Cowen’s Thesis Broke Down

Cowen said on his YouTube channel that his original chain of logic seemed airtight. Rising energy prices would push yields higher, forcing the Fed to hike in September, which would strengthen the dollar and ultimately drag Bitcoin lower. 

Every link in that chain played out exactly as he expected, except the final one. Bitcoin rallied instead of falling, even as the dollar climbed.

He pointed to a clear divergence from his prior pattern. Back in May, a similar dollar double-bottom had corresponded with a Bitcoin local top. This time, Bitcoin followed the dollar higher instead of dropping. “Something clearly changed,” he said.

Why the Rate-Hike History Proved Him Wrong

Cowen walked through Bitcoin’s performance after the first rate hike in previous Fed tightening cycles, in December 2015 and March 2022. 

Bitcoin never fell immediately in either case. The 2015 bottom was already in place before the hike, and after the September 2018 and September 2022 hikes specifically, Bitcoin held up well for a month or two rather than dropping right away.