Senate Vote Looms as Crypto Bill Faces Long Odds

The biggest crypto bill in years cleared the House this summer with support from both parties. That was the easy part. A bigger test lands in the Senate later this month, and the people who bet on politics for a living are not confident.

Traders on Kalshi, the prediction market platform, put the odds of the legislation passing by December at under 25 percent. They give it a less than 50% chance of being implemented by April 2027. In other words, the market sees a real chance this thing stays stuck.

What the Bill Would Do

The legislation is called the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, and its goal is simple: end the tug-of-war over who gets to regulate crypto. Right now, digital assets sit in a gray zone. The bill would hand the SEC the role of policing crypto securities and give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over digital commodities.

For an industry that has spent years guessing which agency has the final say, that clarity would be a big deal. It could also bring more traditional investors and financial firms into the market, since the rules of the road would finally be written down.

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