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XRP Paradox: Why Ripple's 'North Star' Sinks Against USD but Prepares to Beat Bitcoin
The main bellwether of the Ripple ecosystem — the XRP token — is steadily losing value against the U.S. dollar, hovering around the dangerous psychological level of $1.
The main bellwether of the Ripple ecosystem — the XRP token — is steadily losing value against the U.S. dollar, hovering around the dangerous psychological level of $1.
However, the Bollinger Bands on TradingView are sending the opposite signal — while the asset's fiat value is fading, XRP is preparing for a strong technical move against the market's flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
Dollar pressure on XRP
Looking at the XRP/USD chart, the picture appears troubling. Following its explosive rise in the previous cycle, when the token surged above $3.20, the asset has entered a prolonged decline. By mid-August 2026, its price had moved close to the psychological barrier of $1.00.
The Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly and monthly charts clearly shows that the price is effectively sliding along the lower boundary of the range.
If the $1.00 level fails to hold, the technical corridor will open the door to a further decline, potentially toward the long-term support zone between $0.65 and $0.85.
Escaping the Bitcoin trap
The situation looks entirely different when the dollar is removed from the equation and XRP is compared directly with Bitcoin through the XRP/BTC pair. Here, the charts are signaling that sellers are exhausted.
Over the past five years, XRP has gone through a massive capitulation against the market leader and is now testing a historic bottom. On the monthly chart, the price has reached the rock-solid level of 0.00001480 BTC. Major players did not allow the token to fall below this level even during its darkest periods.
XRP/BTC monthly chart within Bollinger Bands, Source: TradingView
This is where pure mathematics comes into play. After its prolonged rise, Bitcoin looks overheated and exhausted, while its volatility has contracted to a minimum. If the cryptocurrency market continues to fall, Bitcoin could lose market capitalization much faster because of its sheer size.
XRP, meanwhile, has practically nowhere left to fall — it is already at the bottom. Because of this difference in the pace of decline, the XRP/BTC chart could begin to reverse upward.
The daily XRP/BTC chart has already produced a local bullish signal from the RSI, while the volume profile shows that a so-called "vacuum" lies above the current price — an area with almost no sell orders.
This means that once Bitcoin finally stalls, XRP/BTC could move upward with very little resistance. The nearest target for this technical rebound is a return to average levels, which would give the token a gain of roughly 28% against Bitcoin.
As of August 2026, buying XRP with U.S. dollars remains risky, as the decline caused by macroeconomic pressure could continue. However, for those looking to rotate out of a stalled Bitcoin position and sit out the broader market storm, Ripple's "North Star" is becoming one of the most promising candidates for a local victory.
