Bitcoin ETF netflows by fund. Source: CoinMarketCap
The inflow data, along with futures and spot market data, suggest tentative dip buying at $60,000 and below. However, heavy leverage and Bitcoin’s sensitivity to negative macro news caused breakouts to fade as traders cut leveraged positions.
Bitcoin’s daily cumulative volume delta (CVD), which measures net taker buying versus selling, started the week with buyers in control. That shifted to distribution as positive flows from July 4 to July 6 gave way to net selling of $612 million on July 7 and $714 million on July 8.
Bitcoin spot and futures cumulative volume delta. Source: Hyblock
As sellers stepped in, the aggregate funding rate fell from 0.25 to a near-neutral 0.01 on July 9. However, the declines in funding and open interest are more likely to indicate a crowded long position deflating than a total flush-out.
Bitcoin aggregate funding rate, open interest. Source: Hyblock
BTC’s liquidation heatmap further highlights a price-bound trend, with BTC bouncing between two liquidity pools. Pushing past the $65,000 cap would trigger short liquidations toward $68,700, while the downside liquidity magnet lies in the $60,500-$61,000 range.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, 7-day view. Source: Hyblock
Fed Minutes Highlight Split, Oil Rallies As US-Iran Ceasefire Cracks
The June FOMC minutes revealed a committee divided over the future direction of interest rates and the best way to tackle rising inflation. At Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, which resulted in a unanimous hold at 3.50%-3.75%, members weighed scenarios. Warsh described the debate as a “family fight.” The dot plot slightly leans toward one hike in 2026 followed by one cut in each of the next two years.
In terms of how the Fed perspectives impacted crypto, the minutes stressed data dependence and kept inflation risks tilted to the upside, as tariffs and energy price shocks bolstered the hawkish outlook. For the time being, the higher-for-longer scenario is very much alive.
Strategy Sells Again, Traders Mark It As Routine
Strategy remained last week’s dominant story (MSTR). The company
sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million) to fund dividend payments for its preferred stock, STRC. Meanwhile, its 843,775 BTC holdings are underwater, with an average cost near $66,384.
The market appears to be absorbing these sales more readily. Bitcoin fell about 20% following Strategy’s first BTC sale announcement, involving 32 BTC, but declined only about 3.5% following the much larger sale. It also recovered within a day rather than over several weeks.
The repeat run-ups to $64,800 suggest that traders are starting to treat the selling as a routine dividend-funding measure, rather than as a solvency event. If there were real liquidation risk, the market would sniff it out fast. However, STRC is only about 13% off its peg, and MSTR is up 30% off its lows.
As mentioned earlier, retail positioning is more cautious. ETF demand softened after three days. Additionally, positive funding rates and falling open interest point to leveraged longs gradually de-risking. Until buyers show greater commitment to using spot and perpetual futures, $61,000 remains a focus area.
What's On the Radar?
- Will this week’s ETF print confirm a trend break? A second week of net inflows, along with a rising BTC price and buy-side dominance in spot and futures flows, may indicate a trend reversal gaining strength.
- Will the splintering of the US-Iran ceasefire trigger an energy price shock that affects inflation and spills over into the next FOMC meeting?
- Will Strategy keep selling, or start buying in size again? Further dividend-funded BTC sales may chip away at investor sentiment and pin BTC to $60,000 again.
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